Opinion Politics

ARCHIEVES:WHY PDP WILL LOSE-DR ARDO

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Let me start by saying from the onset that I
am PDP. I have always been PDP; and no one
can deny me of being PDP. But there are two
kinds of PDP – the positive and the negative
PDP; I am of the positive PDP who has remained
within to fight the negative PDP. Thank God
Almighty, it is now obvious that Nigerians are at
last ready to get rid of the negative PDP in 2015.
I believe it could well be for this purpose that
our judiciary failed to determine President
Jonathan’s ineligibility status when the latter
insisted on contesting the election. Yes, we all
want the ravaging PDP out of power and out of
our national live. We do not need to talk to
thousands of Nigerians to realize this fact; just
meet a few people in the streets of most parts of
the country and the same narrative will
inevitably keep coming back at you – Nigerians
today want the PDP out of power even more
than they had wanted the military out in 1999.
The reason is simple; the PDP has wrecked the
country in its 6 years in office far more than the
military did in its 29 years in power – PDP has done worse than the military. So,
Nigerians understandably want them out.
B ut wanting the PDP out will not get it
out unless and until concrete and
determined steps are taken. I see in
the formation of the All Progressive
Congress (APC) such determined step.
Perceptively, while Nigerians are ever ready
to support in achieving this noble objective,
the APC itself on its own has taken the
appropriate measure to win the presidential
election fair and square by fielding in right
candidates with mass public support, General
Mohammad Buhari (rtd) and Prof. Yemi
Osibanjo, as its Presidential and Vice
Presidential candidates respectively. This is a
sure ticket of guaranteeing electoral victory.
The political calculation is easy, and the
electoral mathematics is simple; Buhari,
more than any politician in the North,
commands the support of the Northern
populace in the same way as Tinubu, more
than any politician south of the Niger,
commands the support of the Southwest
zone. Therefore, fielding in any other
candidate than Buhari could have turned off
the North against the party in the same way
as how CPC’s fielding in of a Southwesterner
other than Tinubu or his nominee as its Vice
Presidential candidate in the 2011
presidential election turned off the zone
against the CPC. Having avoided the mistake
of 2011, I believe APC’s victory in 2015 is
assured. Mathematically, the electoral forte
of the two geopolitical zones of Northwest
and Southwest alone put together constitute
46.3% of the national electoral strength,
based on the 2011 voters’ register. Driving
from the voting pattern of these zones since
1960, the probability of the PDP winning the
presidential election in 2015 does not exist.
T he South-west zone has 14,296,163
registered voters, which represents
19.44% of the total number of voters
nationwide. In terms of national
electoral strength, the zone is number
2. Taking into account the electoral
behaviour of the South-west since
independence, the zone has proven itself,
without exception, of incapable of voting
anyone other than its own. In the 1
Republic it voted mainly Action Group in
favour of Chief Obafemi Awolowo with about
69% voters’ turnout. In the 2 Republic, it
voted 78.75% of its total votes cast for UPN
in favour of Chief Awolowo, with 70%
voters’ turnout. In the June 12, 1993
presidential election, the pattern was
repeated more or less the same, except that
the total percentage of SDP’s votes in favour
of Chief MKO Abiola rose up to 84.5% in the
zone. In the 1999 presidential election,
mainly because the only two candidates for
the presidency were both from the South-
west, the zone’s voters’ turnout was
abysmally low (48.09%) with about 68% of
the votes cast to APP in favour of Chief Olu
Falaye. 2003 also recorded poor voters’
turnout with 71% of votes cast to Obasanjo’s
PDP. In 2011, with no Southwestern
candidate fielded by any of t

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